Stock Market trading.
Options Trading Coach
& Mentor teaches you
trading skills to profit
in bull or bear markets
Stock market and
stock financial
analysis... the
fundamentals.

Minimize your risk!
WallStWise.com
 

321-806-4068

Contact
Linked to you
one-on-one
on your pc - it's like
sitting beside you!

Maximize opportunity.
Now get more training
time at no extra cost!
.

30 years experience
shows how to trade
up or down market.

Welcome

Overview Technical Fundamental How To:
 Home
 About WSW
 Coach's Bio
 Disclaimer
 Fee Schedule
 Guarantee
 Testimonials
 Books of interest
 Curriculum
 Money Management
 New Students
 Overview of Trading
 Routine
 4 Step Trading

 Earn and Learn!
 Charting
 Chart Checklist
 Off-Chart Checklist
 Options
 Scanning
 Setups

 twitteryoutubetumblrWordpressfacebookLinkedin
 Environment
 Fear and Greed
 Fundamentals
 Futures
 Sector Rotation
 
Stock Research
 Start Trading
 
Contact
 See Risk/Reward 
 Enter Trade Orders
 Find Useful Links
 Paper Trade
 Start Your Training
 
Short stocks 
Fundamental analysis
 involves looking at any data, besides the trading patterns of the stock chart, that can be expected to impact the price or perceived value of a stock. As the name implies, it means getting down to basics. Unlike its cousin technical analysis, which focuses only on the trading and price history of a stock, fundamental analysis focuses on creating a portrait of a company, identifying the intrinsic or "fundamental" value of its shares, and buying or selling the stock based on that information.
 

Analysts may be wrong but they can and do move the stock price  Check out their performance here. 

 Read > interesting article re: stock valuations

Price divided by annual earnings = the P/E or MULTIPLE

The term multiple is used because the P/E shows how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings.  Consider this; you invest in a company based on forward earnings.  If a company earns $3 per year and paid it all out in dividends to you, it would take 10 years for you to get your money back on a $30 stock.  A stock with $3 of EPS that is trading at $30 has a P/E of 10. This means investors are willing to pay 10 times the current EPS for the stock.  Of course, companies may or may not pay out any dividends; if they do, it certainly would only be a small fraction of what they earn since they need that money for continuing operations.

Multiply the earnings times the P/E (multiple) and you get the stock's price.  In the above example 10 (the multiple) times the earnings of $3 equals $30.

Remember, you are buying future earnings potential when you buy any stock or for that matter, any index as well.  Stay informed about your stock's earnings growth and its potential growth.  This moves stock prices.  Google comes to mind.

Stock Price divided by earnings equals the P/E or Price to Earnings Ratio, also called the 'multiple', you will read or hear about it often. You will see different ways of measuring earnings, the P/E, the PEG, both with forward looking and with trailing (past months) accounting.

Stock prices reflect what investors think a company will be worth. Future growth is already accounted for in the stock price.  Therefore, what positive/negative news, events, or changes in the cost of doing business (fuel, taxes, interest rates, new products, higher sales, etc.) can affect the perception of value?  The market, you and I and millions of other investors continuously add and subtract these new changes.  No, you and I are not making computations; you and I are watching the reaction to the news from bigger money with bigger and better computers and hundreds of MBAs doing the number crunching.

This is an important question and it is why your stock market is in existence, to facilitate that valuation and provide a marketplace to trade or exchange that value for another...stock to cash for example.

There is much to consider regarding the fundamentals of a stock but none more important than those items that affect earnings.  Low earnings with low expectations for the future equals low stock price, high earnings with even higher expectations in earnings equals a higher stock price.

Price-Earnings Ratio - P/E Ratio
A valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings.

Calculated as:

 

For example, if a company is currently trading at $43 a share and earnings over the last 12 months were $1.95 per share, the P/E ratio for the stock would be 22.05 ($43/$1.95).

EPS is usually from the last four quarters (trailing P/E), but sometimes it can be taken from the estimates of earnings expected in the next four quarters (projected or forward P/E). A third variation uses the sum of the last two actual quarters and the estimates of the next two quarters.
 
Also sometimes known as "price multiple" or "earnings multiple". 
 
In general, a high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower P/E. However, the P/E ratio doesn't tell us the whole story by itself. It's usually more useful to compare the P/E ratios of one company to other companies in the same industry, to the market in general or against the company's own historical P/E. It would not be useful for investors using the P/E ratio as a basis for their investment to compare the P/E of a technology company (high P/E) to a utility company (low P/E) as each industry has much different growth prospects.
 
The P/E is sometimes referred to as the "multiple", because it shows how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. If a company were currently trading at a multiple (P/E) of 20, the interpretation is that an investor is willing to pay $20 for $1 of  current earnings.

It is important that investors note an important problem that arises with the P/E measure, and to avoid basing a decision on this measure alone. The denominator (earnings) is based on an accounting measure of earnings that is susceptible to forms of manipulation, making the quality of the P/E only as good as the quality of the underlying earnings number.

Price/Earnings To Growth - PEG Ratio

A ratio used to determine a stock's value while taking into account earnings growth. The calculation is as follows:

 
PEG is a widely used indicator of a stock's potential value. It is favored by many over the price/earnings ratio because it also accounts for growth. Similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG means that the stock is more undervalued.

Keep in mind that the numbers used are projected and, therefore, can be less accurate. Also, there are many variations using earnings from different time periods (i.e. one year vs five year). Be sure to know the exact definition your source is using.
    
Forward Price To Earnings - Forward P/E

A measure of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation. While the earnings used are just an estimate and are not as reliable as current earnings data, there is still benefit in estimated P/E analysis. The forecasted earnings used in the formula can either be for the next 12 months or for the next full-year fiscal period.



Also referred to as "estimated price to earnings".
 
The estimated P/E of a company is often used to compare current earnings to estimated future earnings. If earnings are expected to grow in the future, the estimated P/E will be lower than the current P/E. This measure is also used to compare one company to another with a forward-looking focus
 

How much emphasis you will put on fundamentals versus the technicals of the chart is up to you the trader.  Most traders will emphasize the technicals while not totally ignoring the multiple and the current price.  Maybe it would be best to wait for the top and consider shorting once it breaks to the downside proving that it is overvalued...it's your call.

For those of you who have to see and do the
computations, you analytical types, come here.
 

 

cartoon courtesy of the New Yorker magazine.

© 2009 WallStWise.com   All rights reserved.