Stock Price divided by earnings equals the P/E or
Price to Earnings Ratio, also called the 'multiple',
you will read or hear about it often. You will see different ways
of measuring earnings, the P/E, the PEG, both with forward looking
and with trailing (past months) accounting.
Stock prices reflect what investors
think a company will be worth. Future growth is already accounted
for in the stock price. Therefore, what positive/negative news,
events, or changes in the cost of doing business (fuel, taxes, interest
rates, new products, higher sales, etc.) can affect the perception of
value? The market, you and I and millions of other investors
continuously add and subtract these new changes. No, you and I are
not making computations; you and I are watching the reaction to the news
from bigger money with bigger and better computers and hundreds of MBAs
doing the number crunching.
This is an important question and it is why
your stock market is in existence, to facilitate that valuation and
provide a marketplace to trade or exchange that value for
another...stock to cash for example.
There is much to consider regarding the
fundamentals
of a stock but none more important than
those items that affect earnings.
Low earnings with low expectations for the future equals low stock
price, high earnings with even higher expectations in earnings equals a
higher stock price.
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Price-Earnings Ratio - P/E Ratio |
A valuation ratio of a company's current share price
compared to its per-share earnings.
Calculated as:
For example, if a company is currently trading at $43
a share and earnings over the last 12 months were $1.95
per share, the P/E ratio for the stock would be 22.05
($43/$1.95).
EPS is usually from the last four quarters (trailing
P/E), but sometimes it can be taken from the estimates
of earnings expected in the next four quarters
(projected or forward P/E). A third variation uses the
sum of the last two actual quarters and the estimates of
the next two quarters.
Also sometimes known as
"price multiple" or "earnings multiple". |
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In general, a high P/E suggests
that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in
the future compared to companies with a lower P/E.
However, the P/E ratio doesn't tell us the whole story
by itself. It's usually more useful to compare the P/E
ratios of one company to other companies in the same
industry, to the market in general or against the
company's own historical P/E. It would not be useful for
investors using the P/E ratio as a basis for their
investment to compare the P/E of a technology company
(high P/E) to a utility company (low P/E) as each
industry has much different growth prospects.
The P/E is sometimes referred to as the "multiple",
because it shows how much investors are willing to pay
per dollar of earnings. If a company were currently
trading at a multiple (P/E) of 20, the interpretation is
that an investor is willing to pay $20 for $1 of
current earnings.
It is important that investors note an
important problem that arises with the P/E measure, and
to avoid basing a decision on this measure alone. The
denominator (earnings) is based on an accounting measure
of earnings that is susceptible to forms of
manipulation, making the quality of the P/E only as good
as the quality of the underlying earnings number. |
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Price/Earnings To Growth - PEG Ratio |
A ratio used to determine a stock's value while taking
into account earnings growth. The calculation is as
follows:
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PEG is a
widely used indicator of a stock's potential value. It
is favored by many over the price/earnings ratio because
it also accounts for growth. Similar to the P/E ratio,
a lower PEG means that the stock is more undervalued.
Keep in mind that the numbers used are projected and,
therefore, can be less accurate. Also, there are
many variations using earnings from different time
periods (i.e. one year vs five year). Be sure to know
the exact definition your source is using. |
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Forward Price To Earnings - Forward P/E |
A measure of the
price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted
earnings for the P/E calculation. While the earnings
used are just an estimate and are not as reliable as
current earnings data, there is still benefit in
estimated P/E analysis. The forecasted earnings used in
the formula can either be for the next 12 months or for
the next full-year fiscal period.

Also referred to as "estimated price to earnings". |
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estimated P/E of a company is often used to compare
current earnings to estimated future earnings.
If earnings are expected to grow in the future, the
estimated P/E will be lower than the current P/E.
This measure is also used to compare one company to
another with a forward-looking focus |
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How much
emphasis you will put on fundamentals versus the technicals of the
chart is up to you the trader. Most traders will emphasize
the technicals while not totally ignoring the multiple and the
current price. Maybe it would be best to wait for the top
and consider shorting once it breaks to the downside proving that
it is overvalued...it's your call.
For
those of you who have to see and do the
computations, you analytical types, come here.
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